Elise Miller-Hooks
GMU


Publications: Journal 26

“The Maximal Dynamic Expected Flows Problem for Emergency Evacuation Planning”

Transportation Research Record, 2089, 26-34.
Miller-Hooks, E. and G. Sorrel (2008)

Pub26In this paper, the Maximal Dynamic Expected Flows (MDEF) problem, which seeks the paths and associated flows that maximize the expected number of evacuees who successfully egress within a given time bound T, is defined. The MDEF problem is considered in a network, where arc traversal times and capacities are discrete random variables with time-varying distribution functions and capacities are assumed to be recaptured over time (i.e. the network is dynamic). A metaheuristic based on the principles of noisy genetic algorithms is proposed for its solution.

Details of a novel approach (employing an approximate likelihood measure) to overcoming the difficulties associated with computing state probabilities that require extremely small floating-point arithmetic are provided. Results from numerical experiments run on randomly generated networks with as many as 500 nodes are given.

The results indicate that the proposed solution technique and approximate likelihood measure perform very well. Solution of the proposed problem formulation results in robust evacuation paths that are likely to save the largest number of people before conditions become untenable.




Elise Miller-Hooks, Ph.D.
Professor
Bill & Eleanor Hazel Chair in Infrastructure Engineering

Phone: 703.993.1685
Email: miller@gmu.edu

Office: 4614 Nguyen Engineering Building

Address:
Sid and Reva Dewberry Department of Civil, Environmental and Infrastructure Engineering
George Mason University
4400 University Drive, MS 6C1
Fairfax, VA 22030
USA


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